Tariffs. Oil prices. Economic uncertainty. CSUB SBDC Director Kelly Bearden and Dr. Mark Evans, CSUB Emeritus Professor of Economics, cut through the noise with a focused, data-driven briefing on what’s really happening in the economy — and what small business owners can do to maximize a potential tariff refund.
This marks the 375th episode of the “Webinar Wednesday” business series that provides news and information helpful to employers and business owners.
The CSU Bakersfield SBDC provides free one-on-one help to small business owners. New and existing businesses can go to https://csubsbdc.com/ for more information or to sign up to meet with a business advisor at no cost.
TIMESTAMPS
00:00 Intro
01:04 What’s Up Today – March 18, 2026
05:27 Capital Corridor: Federal Reserve Small Business Credit Survey
– Regional data: 7 Central CA counties vs. national trends
– Share of firms applying for financing (53% regional vs. 60% national)
– Top reasons for applying: operating expenses, expansion
– Top reasons for NOT applying: debt aversion, discouragement
10:09 AI & Consulting: Are Large Firms Struggling to Scale AI?
– McKinsey: 67% of businesses have yet to scale AI
https://www.mckinsey.com/capabilities/quantumblack/our-insights/the-state-of-ai
– PwC: 50%+ of CEOs haven’t seen significant financial results
– How CSUB SBDC can help YOUR business with AI consulting
14:02 Subscribe to CSUB SBDC YouTube
https://www.youtube.com/@csubsbdc
14:58 Kelly Introduces Dr. Mark Evans
– CSUB Emeritus Professor of Economics, 40+ years
– Faculty Hall of Fame 2023 & Webinar Wednesday Resident Economist
16:15 Dr. Evans Begins
– Tariffs & Constitutional Authority
– IPA, Section 232, Section 122 & Section 301 explained
18:04 Tariff Rate Volatility Timeline: Jan 2025 – 2026
– Inauguration Day: 2.5% → Liberation Day: ~32%
– End of 2025: ~10% 18:45 Supreme Court Rules IPA Tariffs Unconstitutional
– Rate drops back to 2.5% (Section 232 only)
19:25 New Section 122 Tariffs Imposed (10%, then 15%)
– July 24, 2026: Section 122 expires (150-day limit)
– Plan to replace with Section 232 & 301 tariffs
– Expect at least 10% tariff rate through all of 2026
21:14 Follow the Money: Who’s Really Paying the Tariffs?
– $175B+ collected; 90–96% borne by U.S. households & businesses
– ⅔ passed to households; ⅓ burden remains on businesses
21:34 Impact on Small Businesses
– ~190,000 small business importers affected
– Small businesses paid ~$55B of $175B total
– Avg. small business importer paid $25K–$36K MORE per month in 2025
23:26 Will Tariffs Be Refunded? Legal Rights vs. Reality
– Legal right to recover exists; Customs has the records
– Administration delaying; heavy litigation expected
– Congress unlikely to act
28:51 What Should Small Businesses Do Now?
– Consult your customs broker, accountant & attorney
– File for refunds within 180 days
– Stay in touch with your industry association
– Contact your elected representative
30:24 War, Oil & the Economy: Iran & the Strait of Hormuz
– U.S. vs. Iran objectives
– Scenarios: declare victory, continued air offense, ground troops
31:03 Oil Supply Disruption Scenarios & Price Impacts
– Rule-of-thumb elasticity coefficients explained
– Crude oil, gasoline, diesel & freight price projections
– 10%, 25%, 50%, 75% disruption scenarios
39:10 Macroeconomic Impact: GDP, Inflation & Unemployment
– Fed’s difficult position: rising unemployment + rising inflation
40:48 EIA Forecast: Crude Above $90 Through Q3 2026
– Aligns with 10–25% disruption scenario
42:07 Q&A with Dr. Evans and Kelly Bearden
– Fuel surcharges & pricing strategy for fuel-heavy businesses
– Diesel prices & separate energy markets
– Should I wait to buy equipment given current tariffs?
– Can Congress pass legislation to refund tariffs?
52:29 Local Benefits of $90 Oil for Kern County – More active wells, easier permitting & increased local energy