Economist Mark Evans, emeritus professor from CSU Bakersfield provides an update on tariffs and the macroeconomy. He also takes a look at local repercussions through an industry breakdown of Kern County employment changes over the past year when he joins SBDC director Kelly Bearden on this week’s free webinar.

Bearden begins the webinar with a variety of strategies for small businesses facing general economic challenges.

This marks the 354th episode of the “Webinar Wednesday” business series that provides news and information helpful to employers and business owners.

The CSU Bakersfield SBDC provides free one-on-one help to small business owners. New and existing businesses can go to https://csubsbdc.com/ for more information or to sign up to meet with a business advisor at no cost.

00:00 Intro

00:26 What’s up today August 13, 2025

03:06 Poll Question #1: “What are you most optimistic about for the remainder of 2025?”

05:13 Poll Question #2: “What is your greatest economic concern today?”

07:28 Capital Corridor – Kern Biz, What are MCAs, Why are MCAs relevant, Should I get an MCA

07:39 $10,000 Kern Biz Façade Grant Improvement Program https://www.kerncounty.com/government/county-administrative-office/economic-development/initiatives/kern-biz-grant-program

09:30 Federal Reserve’s annual small business credit survey data on financing and credit products sought in prior 12 months in local area employers vs. U.S. employers

10:50 Kelly discusses elements of Merchant Cash Advances known as MCAs

11:49 MCAs sound fantastic – right?

12:14 Here is how a typical MCA works – example of Kelly’s Kookie Shop where total repayment amount for is a $100,000 advance is $128,000

14:49 Typical range of MCA payments is 18 months

16:50 Economic Corner – 5 strategies for navigating economic challenges

18:50 Business turnaround strategies with Ben Nicholson, president of Fortis Business Advisors https://youtu.be/uafh0C-CNSs

19:26 INTRO TO AI FOR BUSINESS – UC Merced Regional SBDC Webinar https://ucmerced.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_h4x608Z9QY6sf6U_iV-Ddg#/registration

21:12 Kelly introduces economist Dr. Mark Evans, emeritus professor from CSU Bakersfield

22:20 Dr. Evans begins his presentation: Economic Update – Mostly Tariff Related

23:08 Games – and the Games People Play

23:25 Trade & Tariffs: What’s going on?

24:43 Viewing Trade & Tariffs through the Economists’ “Filter”

24:55 International trade: fundamentally a win-win game

27:06 Trade barriers reduce economic welfare

28:03 What about jobs? Trade deficits?

29:51 What about national security? Emerging technologies?

31:05 Viewing Trade and Tariffs through the Trumpian “Filter”

31:18 Playing a win-lose, zero-sum game

34:27 Revealed Preferences (1-5 ratings)

39:52 Macroeconomic Trends & Outlook – Some updated tariff effect estimates Source: Yale University https://budgetlab.yale.edu/research/state-us-tariffs-august-7-2025

41:47 Real GDP Growth

43:00 Nonfarm Jobs Average Monthly Change (by half-year) US and Kern County, CA

44:05 Average Monthly Employment Change: Dec 2024 through Jun 2025

45:22 Slow price adjustments to the tariffs

47:08 Arm-twisting examples: “Trump warns Walmart against raising prices, tells company to eat the tariffs.” https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-walmart-prices-tariffs-response/ “Furious Trump calls Jeff Bezos over ‘politically hostile’ Amazon plan to advertise tariff surcharge on goods.” https://nypost.com/2025/04/29/business/white-house-blasts-amazon-over-tariff-surcharge-label/

47:51 Latest-month price reports: Beginning of tariff effects?

50:02 Survey of Professional Forecasters – May 2025 Survey Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia https://www.philadelphiafed.org

50:45 Something to monitor: IEEPA Tariff Scenarios Graph from Tax Foundation: https://taxfoundation.org/research/all/federal/trump-tariffs-trade-war/#:~:text=rate%20on%20all%20imports%20would,highest%20average%20rate%20since%201941.

52:48 Questions and answers with attendees